Service Plays Friday 1/2/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns

I'm taking the points with UTAH. *Bowl GOY

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fairway Jay

20* bowl goy Mississippi
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other plays:
kentucky
bama under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alatex

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->20 Mississippi
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[Mr.BlueSky]

B Lang

30 dimes - Ole Miss

unconfirmed! if anybody can confirm this, that would be great

 

[ShadyStu]

DOC

4 Unit Play. #31 Take Utah Utes over Alabama Crimson Tide (Sugar Bowl Friday 8:00 pm Fox) Alabama 27, Utah 24.

 

[DaGreek23]

Brandon Lang
Easy Friday Sweep ... 30 Dime Mississippi
5 Dime 6-point Teaser - Utah/East Carolina

FREE - Utah/Alabama Under (Analysis will be on daily video when made available)

Paid and Confirmed.

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Raging Bull Handicappers

NCAAF:

1* Kentucky +3
2* Ole Miss/Texas Tech o66

NCAAB:

1* Long Beach State -3

NFL:

1* Chargers pk
2* Falcons/Cardinals o51

NHL:

1* Ducks -135

NBA:

1* Warriors/Wolves u218

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS MEMO = 14-13

COTTON BOWL
Ole Miss +5.5 vs. Texas Tech O/U 70.5
Friday, January 2, 2 pm ET FOX - Dallas
Recommendation: Ole Miss

Key questions need to be asked about any team when they take on Texas Tech. First, how good is their secondary? Can their cornerbacks tackle in man coverage? Can they tackle in the open field? How good is the fifth or sixth cornerback in the rotation? Teams that lack secondary depth or that don’t tackle well in space downfield are in big trouble against the Red Raiders offense. We think Ole Miss can answer all of these questions just fine. Texas Tech is undersized on their defensive front, but they are relentless at the line of scrimmage; a hard nosed, quick and physical group of linemen. They did not fare well against the biggest, most physical offensive lines that they faced, but dominated against all other units. Ole Miss measures up here as well. Texas Tech’s offense has been contained against quality defenses in bowl games throughout the Mike Leach era. The extra time to prepare for this explosive passing game is most certainly a factor, as is the overall team speed on defense. We saw Alabama hold the Red Raiders to ten points in a Cotton Bowl win three years ago. Two years ago, Minnesota shut TTU down for three quarters, holding them to 14 points before collapsing in the fourth quarter. Last year, Virginia accomplished that same task as Texas Tech produced only two touchdowns on ten drives through the first three quarters. In that game another fourth quarter offensive explosion earned the Red Raiders a non-spread covering three-point win. Texas Tech finished the 2008 regular season with their only one loss coming at Oklahoma. Senior quarterback Graham Harrell is a proven winner and is blessed with plenty of weapons. Playmaker Michael Crabtree caught 93 passes, 18 of them going for touchdowns in this his sophomore season. Moreover, if he is shut down, eight other receivers caught at least 15 passes. Running backs Shannon Woods and Baron Batch kept opposing defenses honest and overall this offense scored at least 35 points in all 11 of their regular season victories. Meanwhile their normally suspect defense held every opponent but the Sooners to 33 points or less. Ole Miss won its last five games in impressive fashion, closing out the regular season with dominating performances against LSU and Mississippi State. They were the only team to beat Florida but we can’t help but look at Ole Miss and wonder “what if”? In each of the Rebels’ four losses, they committed at least three turnovers and lost the turnover battle in each instance. Overall, Ole Miss is a legitimate top 25 team. They didn’t


LIBERTY BOWL
Kentucky vs. East Carolina -1.5 O/U 42
Friday, January 2, 5 pm ESPN - Memphis, Tenn.
Recommendation: East Carolina

At full strength with early season success against offenses like Louisville
and Alabama, the Kentucky defense was one of the better units in the SEC. But by mid-season injuries and a virtually non-existent offense
became too much to overcome and the results suffered. While the competition level increased over Kentucky’s last five games, they allowed 35.4 points per game. The offense struggled as well, failing to throw a touchdown pass and scoring just 18.2 points per game. Current
reports provide even more bad news for the offense as quarterback
and converted receiver, Randall Cobb is doubtful for this game. Mike Hartline will likely return to the starters role. Hartline brings the same level of ability as Cobb but he is less mobile and hasn’t played a meaningful amount of time since mid-October. Dickie Lyons and Derrick
Locke will also miss. Together both players missed a combined 11 games during the regular season. Despite the missed playing time Lyons is still the team’s leading receiver. Locke remained the team’s leading rusher until Tony Smith surpassed him in the season finale
against Tennessee. All totaled, the team’s top three pass catchers; Cobb, Lyons and Locke combined for 63% of Kentucky’s all-purpose yards. With a suspect passing game that is without its top threats the Wildcats
will struggle mightily in facing a defense that has 21 interceptions
and held teams to under 200 passing yards per game. As for East Carolina, injuries have also been a major factor. As many as 20 players have reportedly missed time due to injury. Like Kentucky, they too had quarterback issues as Patrick Pinkney fell out of favor. Pinkney spent much of the season trying to duplicate his stellar early season performances against Virginia Tech and West Virginia. Injuries to key contributors however made that task difficult and Pinkney tried to do too much. Returned to the lineup with five games remaining by head coach Skip Holtz, Pinkney responded by completing 64% of his passes. As evidenced by his better performances,
Pinkney is most effective when asked to do a moderate amount of passing. When we consider ECU’s best early season
results we clearly find a talented team. Against both Virginia Tech and West Virginia, the Pirates played at full strength and were able earn a pair of impressive outright victories as big priced underdogs. At the end of the season as the team developed some continuity with the back ups gaining more experience and confidence in their starting roles, we witnessed a return to that early season success. Against both UTEP and Tulsa, ECU faced two of the top offenses in the C-USA and held them respectively to 21 and 24 points in winning efforts. In those four key games against offenses that are all superior to Kentucky, East Carolina held the opposition to 14 points per game below their season
scoring averages. In terms of pointspread value, with the exception
of only Arkansas, East Carolina would be favored on a neutral field over every single team that Kentucky beat. On the other side, Kentucky would certainly be an underdog to at least four of teams that East Carolina defeated. The value clearly is with East Carolina.


SUGAR BOWL
Utah vs. Alabama -10.5 O/U 45.5
Friday, January 2, 8 pm ET FOX - New Orleans
Recommendation: Alabama

It is a certainty that the Sugar Bowl representatives will be hoping for a more competitive result than last year’s game between the undefeated mid-major entrant Hawaii and its SEC opponent, Georgia.
Utah fans are dreaming of an upset and it’s second undefeated season in five years. Meanwhile Alabama supporters are counting on the Crimson Tide to show up in what could be a flat spot after losing to Florida in the SEC Championship. It’s certainly conceivable that Alabama players lost their edge and focus after losing to the Gators in the SEC Championship. That loss ended their hopes for a national title and the first undefeated season since 1992. However, if we were choosing one coach in college football who would demand
of his players one last effort and get it, that coach would be Nick Saban. With heavy personnel losses due to injury and suspension Saban routinely got the absolute best from an influx of talented but inexperienced freshman. We’ll call for more of that “Saban Magic”
in this matchup. Motivation aside, the Crimson Tide’s overwhelming advantage
in size, speed and strength will be on full display in New Orleans. It starts up front with perhaps the two most dominating lines in college football.
Led by Antoine Caldwell, Mike Johnson and Andre Smith the offensive line paved the way for Glenn Coffee and freshman Mark Ingram to run for over 2,000 yards and 22 touchdowns. This imposing
ground game made even the most difficult defenses wilt and alleviated much of the pressure from quarterback John Parker Wilson. Utah will need to send a minimum of nine into the box with their undersized defensive line in hopes of slowing down Alabama. That will leave them exposed in the secondary where freshman sensation Julio Jones can do real damage. The onus then falls on Utah quarterback Brian Johnson and the offense to keep pace. Although they averaged a rock solid 400+ yards and 37.5 ppg on the year a quick analysis of the schedule shows they were troubled by physically imposing
defenses. Their faced only two opponents, TCU and New Mexico, who even came close to the kind of size and speed up front that the Tide will offer. Both teams held Utah to just 13 points. Neither of those two defenses had a player that was capable of eating up two or even three blockers at a time like Terrance “Mount” Cody. According
to our Accu-Stat numbers, Alabama was the second best team in the country in stuffing the run and Utah just doesn’t have the firepower to exploit the Tide as a one dimensional passing attack. New Orleans is SEC country and there will no doubt be a sea of crimson
and plenty fan support on full display in the Super Dome. We saw Hawaii crumble when faced toe-to-toe with an SEC power and while Utah is probably cut from a tougher cloth we expect a similar outcome. We project no more than 17 points for the Utes in this one and with the relative ease in which Alabama scored against bigger and better defenses it seems highly unlikely that Utah can compete.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly’s Green Sheet = 24 -28 ( 15-11 SIDEs AND 9-17 TOTALS )

FRIDAY, JANUARY 2, 2009
COTTON BOWL 1:00 PM
Cotton Bowl – Dallas, Texas FOX
Texas Tech (-5½) Mississippi (71)
It is unfortunate that the year that Texas Tech had arguably its best team of
the Mike Leach era, Oklahoma and Texas also had good enough teams to
survive without a major upset along the way and the rest of the Big 12 could
not present of enough challenges. Despite an 11-1 season Tech was left out
of the BCS based on the timing and severity of its loss. The Red Raiders had
a great year but were very fortunate in its win over Texas and also needed
some good fortune to beat Baylor and Nebraska. Although the typical Tech
weaknesses, defense and a running game, were improved this year the Red
Raiders still showed flashes of reverting back to the also-ran teams of the
past. Tech also played two FCS teams this season and had arguably the
most favorable Big 12 South schedule. Mississippi was the only team to beat
Florida this season and the Rebels finished the season on a five-game
winning streak as Coach Nutt masterfully transitioned the program. Ole Miss
allows just 17 points per game which will be a tall order in this match-up but
the offense can put up some big numbers and the rushing edge should be
significant as the Rebels average 183 yards per game on the ground. All four
losses for Ole Miss came by seven points or less against bowl teams. Ole
Miss is very tough against the run but the secondary could be a weakness
which is an obvious concern in this match-up. Although TT could have some
motivation as a snubbed team, the reality is teams in this situation often do
not play well although the Big 12’s Missouri had a great effort last year in a
similar spot. Mississippi did not lose as underdog this season and they have
proven they can play with the best. OLE MISS 35-31
RATING 2: MISSISSIPPI (+5½)
RATING 1: ‘UNDER 71’




LIBERTY BOWL 4:00 PM
Liberty Bowl – Memphis, Tennessee ESPN
East Carolina (-2) Kentucky (42)
This is not a game that much of the national audience will be that interested
in but it gets its own time slot on Friday afternoon as the Conference USA
champion takes on a Kentucky team that finished 6th out of six in the SEC
East with a 2-6 SEC record. The last two years Kentucky has delivered great
bowl efforts with wins over Clemson and Florida State in nearby Nashville but
Memphis is a much further distance than most realize despite being in the
same state. Kentucky did not beat a single team that is playing in a bowl
game but the Wildcats did deliver several competitive efforts against quality
teams, losing by just three at Alabama, four against Georgia and by just
seven against South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Injuries took a serious toll on
the Wildcats and this should be a healthier defensive unit that posted great
early season numbers before fading down the stretch. The Wildcats will be
back with QB Hartline in this game who started the season as the starter but
Kentucky is still missing some key offensive players. East Carolina won six of
the last seven games and upset Tulsa with turnovers to win the C-USA title.
The Pirates won twice in OT against non-bowl teams this season and this
team is not playing the same way on defense as the team the unit that keyed
upsets over West Virginia and Virginia Tech early in the year. East Carolina
was not a strong ATS team on the whole and they have been unreliable as
favorites. Kentucky has a lot of issues but could pull together a sound bowl
performance similar to the last two years. Both defenses should regroup and
play to their potential so this could be one of the lower scoring bowl games of
the season. KENTUCKY 17-14
RATING 1: KENTUCKY (+2)
RATING 4 ‘UNDER 42’



SUGAR BOWL 7:15 PM
Louisiana Superdome – New Orleans, Louisiana FOX
Alabama (-10½) Utah (45)
It really is not a surprise that Utah is in this game as we and others projected
the Utes as a top ten team and the most likely non-BCS conference team to
make a BCS bowl. Utah has a strong team with a balanced offense and a
defense that was durable and consistent. The Utes benefited from a
favorable schedule beating both TCU and BYU in close games at home while
also hosting its toughest non-conference game against Oregon State. The
Utes narrowly beat the Beavers and also narrowly won at Michigan to open
the year, a win that looked much more impressive at the time. What Coach
Saban accomplished at Alabama is remarkable as in just two years the Tide
were just a quarter away from the BCS championship game. Alabama
certainly caught some breaks with a handful of narrow wins against mediocre
teams but the Tide also rose to the occasion in its biggest games, crushing
Clemson and Georgia away from home as well as winning narrowly at LSU,
crushing Auburn, and playing a very close game with Florida that could have
gone either way. Alabama’s defense allowed just 256 yards per game and 13
points per game with some of the best numbers in the nation. Alabama’s
offense likes to pound the ball and Utah could be up to the task but if the
Tide are motivated this should not be a repeat of Utah’s 2004 Fiesta Bowl
win. Coach Saban has great numbers with prep time. ALABAMA 31-13

RATING 3: ALABAMA (-10½)
RATING 1: ‘UNDER 45’
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CKO = 3-5

10 ALABAMA over Utah
Late Score Forecast:
ALABAMA 34 - Utah 13
(Friday, January 2, 2009)

Everything went swimmingly TY for 12-0 Utah, as the Utes caught Michigan in a down year, edged Air Force 30-23 in the last minute, beat Oregon State 31-28 on a last-second FG, survived TCU 13-10 when the Horned Frogs missed two FGs in the fourth quarter, and were gifted with six turnovers by BYU. Don't look for Utah's good fortune to continue vs. an Alabama team that is the biggest, best-balanced, and best-coached of any Utes' foe TY. Plus, the Crimson Tide got a trial run vs. the Utah spread offense when it faced Florida in the SEC title game, and Bama is expected to have overwhelming support. Utah is no Hawaii (ripped by Georgia in the Sugar LY), but if Tide QB John Parker Wilson (only 6 ints. TY) avoids mistakes, Bama gets over the pointspread hurdle.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA = 4-2

OLE MISS
There are underdogs...and there are live underdogs.
And we suggest that dangerous Ole Miss qualifies in the latter
category as it prepares for a January 2 date at the Cotton Bowl in
Dallas against Texas Tech. Certainly, the Rebels were “live” when
getting points from the oddsmakers this season, covering all four of
their chances as an underdog. Such dog success is nothing new
for HC Houston Nutt, whose Arkansas and Ole Miss teams have now
covered their last six as the “short”. Overall, the Rebels were a solid
8-2 vs. the number in 2008, including covers away from Oxford at
Florida (also a straight-up win for Ole Miss!) and at Alabama, which
almost became another victim of Houston Nutt’s squad. As for the
Red Raiders, note they haven’t covered their last three bowl games,
and despite their flash are only 20-24 vs. the number their last 44
games on the board.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET = 9-19


COTTON BOWL
MISSISSIPPI (8-4) vs. TEXAS TECH (11-1)
Friday, January 2 Day at Dallas, TX (Grass Field)
Mississippi 30 - TEXAS TECH 27—It can be tricky business to use
perceived conference strengths when handicapping bowl games. That’s
especially true this season regarding the much-ballyhooed SEC, which many
aficionados believe was down a notch or two from recent years. Which might
make it dicey to assume that SEC entries will continue to provide the sort of
value in postseason action as they have the past two years (12-5 vs. line in
bowls during ‘06 & ‘07).
Nonetheless, we aren’t convinced this is a bad matchup for Ole Miss. On the
contrary, fundamentals might prove troubling for Texas Tech. Consider that the
Rebels didn’t blink when facing the toughest pair of teams in this season’s SEC,
winning on the road at Florida and narrowly missing a major upset of Alabama
at Tuscaloosa, not to mention winning at last year’s national champ LSU. In all
of those meetings, Ole Miss’ team speed came in handy, a quality that figures
to enhance its chances vs. QB Graham Harrell (4747 YP & 41 TDP), WR Michael
Crabtree (93 catches & 18 TDs), and Mike Leach’s potent Texas Tech spread
attack. Those “quicks” are especially evident on a Rebel defense that allowed
only 17.8 ppg in ‘08, ranking a solid 15th nationally. And remember that Ole
Miss’ four 2008 defeats came by a combined total of 19 points.
Meanwhile, the Raider defense, perhaps the best of Leach’s tenure in
Lubbock, nonetheless sprung some leaks down the stretch, and though not as
potent as Tech, the Ole Miss attack led by Texas transfer QB Jevan Snead did
score 31 ppg in ‘08. When considering that the Rebs covered all 4 chances as
a dog for 1st-year HC Houston Nutt, and the Raiders’ not-so-special recent
postseason history (no covers last 3 bowls, all as chalk), the case for the SEC
rep becomes even more compelling.
(DNP...SR: EVEN 2-2)



LIBERTY BOWL
EAST CAROLINA (9-4) vs. KENTUCKY (6-6)
Friday, January 2 Night at Memphis, TN (FieldTurf)
*Kentucky 20 - East Carolina 17—We can’t think of many (any?) bowl
teams that needed time off to recuperate after the regular season more than
battered Kentucky, which dropped 4 of its last 5 games. Sure, the Wildcats will
still be without top RB soph Derrick Locke & sure-handed sr. WR Dicky Lyons,
who both suffered major knee injuries in October. And the offense absorbed a
more recent blow, as athletic true frosh Randall Cobb—who started the last 4
games at QB after beginning the campaign at WR—is not expected to be
available due to his own knee problems. Still, Lexington scouts say the
talented, veteran UK defense is as healthy as it’s been since holding the
season’s first five foes to a total of just 39 points.
Not that East Carolina hasn’t been forced to overcome significant personnel
losses of its own. After all, wins over Virginia Tech & West Virginia to open the
campaign found the Pirates ranked as high as No. 14 in the nation before
attrition robbed them of several of their best players on both sides of the ball.
It won’t be a very big surprise if savvy sr. QB Patrick Pinkney is able to lead
favored ECU to a small, spread-covering victory. And we usually don’t put
much stock in the mostly self-serving debates over which conference is the
best. Regarding this case, however, it’s hard to argue that the Wildcats didn’t
face far stiffer competition in the rugged SEC than the Pirates did in the offenseoriented
Conference USA. So, slightly prefer to back well-calloused UK, which
should have enough defense to prevail as long as experienced soph QB Mike
Hartline (started first 8 games; 55%, 8 TDP, 7 ints. in 2008) doesn’t get careless
with the ball.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING




SUGAR BOWL
UTAH (12-0) vs. ALABAMA (12-1)
Friday, January 2 Night at New Orleans, LA (Dome; FieldTurf)
*Alabama 34 - Utah 13—It goes virtually without saying that as an
undefeated double-digit underdog, a substantial case can be made for Utah.
The Utes have a high-percentage passer in Brian Johnson (68.3%, 24 TDP, 9
ints.), two bruising runners in 230-pound jr. Matt Asiata (687 YR) & 220-pound
sr. Darrell Mack (533 YR), a deep corps of receivers (five have 3 or more TDC),
and a terrific PK/P in Louie Sakoda, who hit 21 of 23 FGs TY (8 of 10 from 40
or more). The defense (17 ppg) is tough and deep. Moreover, Utah has won
seven straight bowls, including the Fiesta under Urban Meyer that gave the
Utes a perfect 12-0 season in 2004.
But that 35-7 Fiesta win occurred vs. a lightly-regarded Pittsburgh team. To
finish a perfect 13-0 this season, the Utes will have to upset Alabama, in SEC
country, coached by Nick Saban, who has prepared four teams for the SEC title game
(winning twice) and one for the BCS championship (winning with LSU in 2003).
That knack for big-game preparation was never more apparent than in this
year’s most important contests for the Crimson Tide. In games against
Clemson, at Georgia, at Tennessee, at LSU, and vs. Auburn, Saban’s charges
led by a combined score of 94-20 at the half. Against super-fast Florida in TY’s
SEC championship, Bama overcame a 17-10 deficit at the half to lead 20-17 in
the fourth quarter before Tim Tebow’s extraordinary heroics.
Make no mistake, this Utah BCS buster is no Hawaii, which was ripped 41-10
by SEC runner-up Georgia LY. Even Saban says of the Utes, “This is a lot better
team than anybody thinks.” But Utah still runs its version of the shotgun spread
installed by Urban Meyer during his stay, and the Tide got a thorough runthrough
vs. Florida’s speedier version in the SEC title game. It will be difficult
for the Utes to surprise Bama, which Utah will probably try to do early by
spreading the field and going to the air, testing UA’s mediocre pass rush.
But failing success with that tactic, Utah is likely to succumb to the Tide’s
powerful ground game, driven by Alabama’s big, veteran OL—led by A-A LT
Andre Smith—which allowed only 17 sacks in 14 games and helped RBs Glen
Coffee, Mark Ingram & Roy Upchurch pound out a combined 2399 yards and
5.8 ypc. 6-4 frosh Julio Jones (51 recs.) is likely to be the best WR Utah has
faced all season. And while QB J.P. Wilson (57.7%) is not sensational, he has
learned how to care for the ball (only 6 ints.). CB Javier Arenas (2 PR TDs) is
one of the top return men in the country, helping the Tide tie for the lead in
defense & STs TDs TY with eight.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK = 12-15


Friday, January 2nd
COTTON BOWL
Cotton Bowl Stadium • Dallas, TX
Texas Tech over Ole Miss by 1
We think one of the most important factors to consider in handicapping a
Bowl is also one of the most obvious. Does your team REALLY want to be
suiting up for today’s game? Based on what we’ve heard out of Dallas, the
Ole Miss Rebels might be a wee bit more excited about visiting the cotton
fi elds here. Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach has spent more time bitching
about the Heisman diss of QB Graham Harrell (“If Graham isn’t invited to
the ceremony, they ought to quit giving out the award”) and his team’s BCS
snub than expressing his gratitude for playing in the fi nal Cotton Bowl held
at Cotton Bowl Stadium, a 73-year run that ends when the game moves
to Arlington next year in the Dallas Cowboys’ new billion-dollar facility.
While Leach can squeeze out an occasional “We’re grateful to the Cotton
Bowl” sound byte, Ole Miss fi rst-year head coach Houston Nutt – with a
newly renegotiated contract extension in his gift bag – has been ecstatic
over his squad’s practices. “They’re like little kids around a Christmas tree”
beamed Nutt… and why not? Not a single member of this Mississippi team
has laced ‘em up for a Bowl, compared to a Red Raiders program making
its 9th straight postseason appearance (2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in the last 3).
Strictly from an ATS standpoint, the Magnolia side is a fairly even mix of
good and bad. The good news fi rst: Bowl dogs that won 3 or fewer games
the previous season are 17-7 ATS versus an opponent off a SU win, SEC Bowl
dogs are 18-9 this decade and Rebel coach Nutt has hogged the cash in 24
of 34 tries as a dog against a foe off a SU win of 7 or more points. However,
our database warns us that teams on a 4-0 SU and ATS run to end the season
(Ole Miss) are just 5-13 SU and ATS when tackling a foe off a pointspread
loss of 5 or more points like TTRR. And of course there’s that whole ‘new
coach in a Bowl’ thing (9-20 ATS versus greater than .666 opposition) that
we can’t dismiss. Fortunately, if you’re feeling rebellious, most of the ATS
info we mined on the Tech side of the match came up less than favorable.
The Red Raiders own a shameful 4-9-1 ATS log in their last 14 Bowl games,
the chalk in the previous 10 TTRR Bowls stands just 2-8 ATS and today’s Lone
Star rep has struggled to a paltry 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS mark against the SEC.
The bottom line is – this is NOT where Tech expected to be bowling this year.
With just a single loss to Oklahoma and a BCS ranking of #2 before falling
to the Sooners, Leach and company had their sights set on at least a BCS
Bowl game. How can they lay points to a solid SEC team that is loving every
second of this? One last note: take a good look at Tech WR phenom Michael
Crabtree today because he’ll be an NFL multimillionaire this time next year.
Raiders win by the razor’s edge in a true Cotton Bowl Classic.





LIBERTY BOWL
Memorial Stadium • Memphis, TN
East Carolina over Kentucky by 3
This group of Pirates’ rise from the dead, or at least from the IR, would
make even Johnny Depp proud. You have to hand it to ECU ship’s captain
Skip Holtz. After a 3-0 start, the Conference USA champs were hit with a
rash of injuries that saw them start no less than 43 different players on
both sides of the ball. In fact, they’ve only had their starting lineup intact
in the fi rst and last games of the season, both resulting in SU dog wins.
They’re completely healthy now and we think they’ll have their way with a
Kentucky squad that has been non-competitive against fellow Bowlers this
entire season, posting an embarrassing 0-5 SU mark. Not only have these
Wildcats come up empty on the scoreboard but they’ve also been tamed
on the fi eld, having been out-gained in all 5 of those games by an average
margin of 147 yards – the worst of all Bowlers. The coaching matchup also
favors the boys from Greenville as Holtz checks in with a 7-3 ATS mark off
a SU dog win while Rich Brooks carries a 1-5 ATS log in all Bowl games.
East Carolina fi elds a tough defense that allowed Red Zone scores in just
29 of 42 trips by its opponents, a fact worth mentioning since Kentucky’s
starting QB Randall Cobb recently underwent knee surgery and probably
won’t play today. This game opened with ECU as a 1-point favorite and has
since been banged up to 3. We’re going to lay the FG with a focused group
of Bucs as they pursue their 1st 10-win season since 1991 and hand the 6-6
kittens their 4th straight loss. In a January 2nd game that will provide the
little-seen Pirates with some big-time exposure, look for Holtz’s crew to sail
away with the treasure chest today.





SUGAR BOWL
Louisiana Superdome • New Orleans, LA
Alabama over Utah by 11
Having just seen its bubble burst, Alabama looks to regroup when the
Crimson Tide takes on the nation’s last undefeated team, Utah, at the
Superdome in New Orleans. Much like Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl, the
key to this contest will be whether or not Tide coach Nick Saban can get his
team back up off the mat following their disappointing loss to Florida in
the SEC title game. Saban will need to do better than he has in the past to
get past the feisty Utes. That’s confi rmed by Nicky’s 2-6 SU and ATS record
as a college head coach in games after tasting defeat for the fi rst time in
a season. In fact, in games against opponents that own a win percentage
of greater than .666, Saban is 0-3 SU and ATS when looking to rebound off
an initial loss. Utah represents this season’s non-BCS entrant in a BCS bowl
game and head coach Kyle Whittingham is basking in the glow. “What more
could you ask for?” he said. “You start off playing Michigan in the Big House
and you fi nish against Alabama. I’d say that’s pretty good.” Unlike alsoundefeated
Hawaii, who was gouged 41-10 by Georgia at this same venue
last year, the Utes bring a better pedigree to the Sugar Bowl. This game
marks their 6th consecutive post-season appearance as they ride a 5-game
bowl win streak into the contest. They also bring along a better-balanced
attack than did the Warriors, rushing the ball for 167 RPYG and passing for
267 PYPG. And as much respect as we have for Bama’s dominating season,
we’re a bit surprised to fi nd an undefeated team like Utah taking doubledigits
in a major Bowl. It’s only happened 4 times since 1980 and all 4 of the
teams managed to beat the Vegas line, with 2 of them winning the game
in an upset! With 19 wins in its last 20 games – and an incredible 17-3 ATS
record as a dog versus a .500 or better non conference opponent – it would
be easy to call on a Utah upset. However, this line looks suspiciously like
the SEC Championship match where Florida laid 10 points to the Tide and
squeaked out an 11-point win. Further ATS research ends up in a near-draw.
Teams in BCS Bowl games that scored 35 or more in their previous game
(Utah) are 11-25 SU and ATS while .846 or better Bowl favorites off one-loss
exact (Alabama) are 5-9 ATS, including 1-4 SU and ATS since 1998. Bama’s
Saban needed a victory in last year’s Independence Bowl to avoid his fi rstever
losing season as a college head coach and he got it. The feeling here is
the Alabama leader will not let his team end a wonderful season on a sour
note. THIS JUST IN: Bama All-American LT Andre Smith, this year’s Outland
Trophy winner, has been suspended because of ‘inappropriate contact with
a sports agent.’
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS REPORTER = 15-12


COTTON BOWL
Rose Bowl – Dallas, Texas
TEXAS TECH over MISSISSIPPI by 7
TEXAS TECH, 35-28.


LIBERTY BOWL
Liberty Bowl – Memphis, TN
KENTUCKY over EAST CAROLINA by 1
KENTUCKY, 23-22.


SUGAR BOWL
Louisiana Superdome – New Orleans, LA
RECOMMENDED
ALABAMA over UTAH by 2
[Utah, plus the points.]ALABAMA, 21-19.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS = 7 - 4

LIBERTY BOWL

UK was devastated by inj’s this season losing their top rusher & top receiver for the yr and losing key def players for several games. EC’s rollercoaster season ended on a high note by capturing the CUSA Title. PP calls for a tie (line EC -2) and gives EC a 293-257 yd edge. We like UK as long as they are the dog to a CUSA team.
3★ KENTUCKY (if a dog) 19 EAST CAROLINA 19
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brand X Sports, Mike Volpe Bowl Package = 12-19


Cotton Bowl Friday January 2
Mississippi Rebels versus Texas Tech Red Raiders
Line Texas Tech -5.5 Total 70

Going out a limb a bit here and taking the Rebels plus the points. I know Tech has only one loss (to #1 Oklahoma) and is basically playing at home but I do not like the Red Raiders performance as favorites against the spread (just 1-4)

I do like the Rebels perform as dogs (3-00 and in big games, (can anyone say Florida?)

3* Mississippi Rebels +5.5
Bonus 3* on the OVER 70



Liberty Bowl Friday January 2
East Carolina Pirates versus Kentucky Wildcats
Line East Carolina -1 Total 43

I do not get this line at all. The Pirates closed out the season with three straight and six of their last seven in the win column. Kentucky stumbles into the Liberty Bowl like a drunk into his house on New Year’s Day morning with three straight losses.

The Pirates average point differential is +13 over their last three games. Kentucky’s point differential over that same time period is MINUS 9.4.


5* East Carolina Pirates
Bonus 3* on the UNDER 43



Sugar Bowl Friday January 2
Utah Utes versus Alabama Crimson Tide
Line Alabama -10 Total 45

Boston College has the nation’s longest Bowl win streak at nine. Guess is has the second longest at seven wins? That’s right the world famous Utah Utes!

Do not let the double digit line scare you. As recently as three seasons ago the Utes stomped G Tech 38-10 as 10 point underdogs in 2003 the Utes were 10 point underdogs.

‘Bama CANNOT be happy playing January 2 after being ranked #1 longer than any other team this season and now find themselves with their noses pressed against the BCS Championship game window.

I am not expecting a big effort from the Crimson Tide

It’s the No B**ls,,,,,,,No Baby Pick!!!!

5* Utah Utes +400
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Logical Approach = 26-22 ( 14-10 SIDES AND 12-12 TOTALS )


Cotton Bowl - Dallas, TX - Friday, January 2, 2009

This is another instance of a pair of "Play On" teams matched against one another as both had strong seasons. Texas Tech's lone loss was that blowout loss at Oklahoma. Otherwise they had a very impressive season in the highly rated Big 12. They had the # 4 ranked offense (536 ypg) that led to over 44 points per game (also # 4). As you might expect their defense ranked below average but that had lots to do with the offense scoring so quickly. Tech's secondary defensive stats were actually slightly better than average. Ole Miss enjoyed a resurgence under first year coach Houston Nutt and the Rebels' season highlight was their 31-30 win at Florida. Although a pair of losses followed Mississippi followed up with 5 straight wins to finish the season and their 8-3 ATS record shows just how much they exceeded expectations. Although the offense got most of the headlines behind QB Jevon Snead, the defense was also a strength, limiting foes to just 295 ypg (# 16). The Rebels were especially tough against the run, holding foes to just 85 ypg (# 6). None of their last 4 foes rushed for more than 75 yards and only one team ran for more than 131 yards all season and that game in the opening game. If Mississippi can figure out how to harass Tech QB Graham Harrell we will see the underdog win. And give coach Nutt a month to devise such a plan and the chances for success increase greatly. At the same time Tech coach Mike Leach is also extremely innovative and is sure to have some surprises in store for the Ole Miss defense and their propensity to charge the line of scrimmage. This should be a game of big plays by both offenses and the Total, high though it is, may be exceeded by the middle of the third quarter. Ultimately the call is for the team with the better balanced offense and the significantly better defense to have more ways to make the key plays on offense or key plays on defense. Mississippi wins 41-38, making

MISSISSIPPI a 4 Star Selection
OVER a 3 Star Selection .




Liberty Bowl - Memphis, TN - Friday, January 2, 2009
East Carolina had a very streaky season that featured 3 separate 3 game winning streaks in addition to a 3 game losing streak in mid season. 2 of the winning streaks came afterwards so ECU ended by winning 6 of 7 games including the Conference USA Title game on the road in Tulsa (as double digit dogs). Kentucky barely qualified for a Bowl at 6-6 despite sitting 6-3 before losing their final 3 games. Non of UK's 6 wins came against a team headed to a Bowl although 5 of their 6 losses were to Bowl bound teams and all 6 came within the SEC. But Kentucky did not play a tough non-conference schedule. ECU stepped up in class early and with success, defeating both Virginia Tech and West Virginia to start the season. 3 of their 4 losses were to other Bowl teams but in addition to those first 2 wins 'Carolina did have 2 other wins over Bowl teams, both in conference. Statistically the teams were fairly even with the most notable difference being Carolina's better passing offense. Otherwise the teams were within a few ypg. Surprisingly Kentucky's early to mid season defensive edge disappeared over the second half of the season as the Wildcats wore down while ECU showed modest improvement. Kentucky is in their third straight Bowl, defeating a pair of ACC teams the past two years. East Carolina is also in a third straight Bowl, defeating Boise State last year after losing to South Florida a year earlier. Kentucky does have the better pedigree hailing from the SEC but their late season swoon and their weak non-SEC schedule are causes for concern. Kentucky's 6 wins came against teams that were just 26-40 against everyone else. ECU's 9 wins came versus teams that went 52-49 against other competition. ECU's start to the season demonstrated excellent preparation and their late season momentum insures enthusiasm for this game against a team from a BCS conference. Both teams are well coached but ECU's edge at QB and with the better balanced offense gives them the nod. East Carolina wins 31-23, making

East Carolina a 3 Star Selection
OVER a 3 Star Selection .



Sugar Bowl - New Orleans, LA - Friday, January 2, 2009

With Boise State losing to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl Utah remains the lone team yet to experience defeat this season. Boise was trying to complete a second unbeaten season in three years. Utah has the chance for their second unbeaten season in the last five. They succeeded in going 13-0 in 2004 by defeating Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl and it was a decisive win, 35-7, propelling Ute coach Urban Meyer to Florida where he won the BCS title following the 2006 season. That Pitt team was a far weaker opponent than this Utah team will face in Alabama. Coached by Nick Saban, himself a BCS Title winner with LSU in the 2003 season, the Crimson Tide is well prepared. In just his second season Saban had 'Bama unbeaten until they lost a well played game to Florida in the SEC Title game. Alabama is clearly the more talented team with better athletes and better team speed. But Utah has veteran senior leadership. Utah did come close to losing several games this season as 4 of their dozen wins were by a FG or less. Their opening game win at Michigan - impressive at the time - is not as impressive in retrospect. Clearly Utah will be highly motivated to complete a perfect season with a win over such a team and program as Alabama. Getting double digits provides a lot room even if they fall short. Utah's problem is that they will face by far the best defense they will have seen all season and one of the nation's best. Alabama ranked # 3, allowing just 257 ypg and just 13 points per game (# 6). And they did so against competition much better than that faced by Utah with several of their SEC foes even better than Utah itself! Utah is 7-0 SU in Bowls over the past decade with a pair of wins outright as underdogs. But Alabama is by far the best Bowl foe Utah will have faced. Alabama is just 3-4 in Bowls over the past decade and none of the 3 wins has been by more than 6 points. In fact, Alabama has not won a Bowl game by double digits since defeating North Carolina 24-10 in the Gator Bowl the season following their 1992 National Championship. And unlike Hawaii, last season's BCS crasher from a non-BCS conference, Utah is a legitimately solid football team that does not rely on a gimmick offense for success and also plays solid defense. If highly motivated 'Bama could win this game handily. But after coming so close to a perfect season and playing for the BCS Title had they defeated Florida in the SEC Title game, their motivation may be questioned. Yet we still must be concerned with Saban's uncanny ability to prepare for big games. Alabama is not as talented as Florida but hung with the Gators all the way in that SEC title game. That's what makes this game so tough to call. It's tempting to take the points with a solid Utah team but Alabama's "potential" lurks. It's hard to see Alabama not winning this game and thus perhaps it's a late defensive or special teams play that also gets them the cover. Thus the call is for Alabama to win 27-13, making

ALABAMA a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .


Money Line Recommendations Bowls:

Oregon
LSU
South Carolina
Mississippi
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

the booooj:

AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic

Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas

10 Units on Ole Miss (+4) over Texas Tech

Mississippi (8-4) vs. Texas Tech (11-1)- Texas Tech will come into this game with a chip on their shoulder. They still have a bad taste in their mouth from the beating that Oklahoma put on them, they feel their season warranted a birth in a BCS game, and QB Graham Harrell was snubbed on an invite to New York for the Heisman trophy presentation. The Red Raiders have been one of the most entertaining teams to watch all season and were one of the nation’s best teams for most of the season. Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree is in all likelihood playing in his last game at the collegiate level and will look to go out with a bang. Crabtree creates all types of matchup problems for opposing defenses, which creates opportunities for other receivers, and Graham Harrell is a master at exploiting those opportunities. Ole Miss comes in as a team on the rise, and will look to use this game as a springboard to next season. Jevan Snead is one of the country’s top young signal callers and has directed an offense that has gotten progressively better throughout the season. The Ole Miss defense will look to create pressure on Harrell and force him out of his comfort zone. The Rebels defensive front seven matches up favorably with the Texas Tech offensive line and could be the difference in the game. Look for the Rebels to spring the upset. Ole Miss by 4-7.



Auto Zone Liberty Bowl

Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee

5 Units on East Carolina (-3) over Kentucky

Kentucky (6-6) vs. East Carolina (9-4)- East Carolina comes in winning 6 of their last 7 after a rough stretch in the middle of the season. The Pirate defense will look to take advantage of a Kentucky offense that has struggled of late. Defensive end CJ Wilson should be able to get to QB Mike Hartline who will regain his starting job from the injured Randall Cobb. For Kentucky to have any chance they will have to win the turnover battle. East Carolina QB Patrick Pinckney has struggled at times turning the ball over, but seems to have put those problems behind him. Look for East Carolina to pull away late. East Carolina by 10-14.



Allstate Sugar Bowl

Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

25 Units on Alabama (-9.5) over Utah
Utah (12-0) vs. Alabama (12-1)- Alabama has suffered a huge loss with the suspension of All American Left Tackle Andre Smith. Utah will no doubt look to attack the Alabama offense on that side to take advantage, that being said, nobody adjusts better than Nick Saban. Utah QB Bryant Johnson is a dual threat who has been at his best in the biggest moments, but will see a defense like none he has seen before. Utah will need to establish the run to give Johnson a chance, but that could be a problem with Terrance Cody in the middle of the Crimson Tide defense. On offense Alabama is a run first team with Glen Coffee and dynamic Freshman Mark Ingram in the backfield. They will look to dominate the line of scrimmage by pounding the ball and set up the play action pass. John Parker-Wilson has been a very good game manager for the Tide all season, and when he needs a big play he has been able to find his outstanding receiver Julio Jones. Utah could keep it close early, but look for Alabama to separate in the 2nd half when talent and depth really start to show through. Alabama by 14-20.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bruce Feldman = 19-8



Texas Tech 35, Ole Miss 31: Jevan Snead can play with any of those great Big 12 quarterbacks and the Rebels' receivers will show that Michael Crabtree's not the only big-timer out there, but I think Tech pulls it out late after the Ole Miss secondary runs out of gas.

East Carolina 17, Kentucky 6: The Pirates rallied to win six of their final seven games, while UK lost four of its last five and probably won't have slick QB Randall Cobb (knee). That'd be a huge blow for a team that doesn't have much firepower already. Unless the UK D-line totally dominates this game, I think ECU wins fairly easily.

Alabama 20, Utah 7: Losing Andre Smith will hurt the Tide, but they're still going to be able to run the ball pretty well and should wear down Utah. The Utes, who have been outstanding of late in bowl games, can be physical in their own ground game with Matt Asiata, but this will be the toughest defense they've seen this season.
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